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Facing elimination Leafs rule out Matthews for G6
Let's be clear: This isn't a mock draft. It isn't a projection of what each team will actually do in the first round of the 2024 NFL draft. Instead, it's a look at which prospects might make sense -- and should still be on the board -- at each slot based on two very different draft room strategies: picking to fill a huge team need and picking based on "best player available."
Ideally, NFL teams try to marry the two concepts when making selections in Round 1 -- addressing a need without reaching is how teams win on draft night. But when each franchise is on the clock, decision-makers are weighing a lot of different things, and sometimes there's a value pick too good to pass up or a roster weakness too big to ignore. So for a second year in a row, we asked our NFL draft analysts to explore both sides of the table for all 32 first-round picks:
Jordan Reid named a prospect who would best fill every team's biggest (or in some cases, second-biggest) position need. Matt Miller pointed to the prospect who would give each team maximum value and satisfy a "best player available" approach, while also factoring in positional value.Repeat picks weren't allowed, so each selection was based on the current board for each analyst. The lower we get in Round 1, the more variety you'll see. Essentially, we tried to lay out a few options for every front office gearing up for a Day 1 pick.
See final rankings (ESPN+): Miller | Reid
1. Chicago Bears (via CAR)Reid's pick that fills a big need: Caleb Williams, QB, USC
After dealing Justin Fields to Pittsburgh, the Bears don't have a starting quarterback -- and their 44.5 QBR over the past five seasons ranks 27th in the NFL. Williams can be the new face of the franchise.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Caleb Williams, QB, USC
The Bears can match need with value here. Williams has been the wire-to-wire best player in the 2024 draft, and he should go first overall.
2. Washington CommandersReid's pick that fills a big need: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
The Commanders are looking for a starting quarterback, and while I actually have North Carolina's Drake Maye ranked higher, I went with Daniels here because he's more pro ready right now. Washington will likely have its rookie start out of the gate. Daniels has exciting tools as a passer and runner.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
I have three receivers ranked between Williams and Daniels, but the quarterback positional value is enough to boost Daniels past them in this category. My No. 5 overall player -- who is a terrific deep-ball thrower -- just so happens to also fill the Commanders' biggest weakness.
3. New England PatriotsReid's pick that fills a big need: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
Staying put and drafting a QB would be the answer here. The Patriots lack the offensive personnel necessary for a young QB to succeed right now, but they can address those other needs later in the draft. Patience will be key; New England would have to let Maye -- who has a big arm -- develop over time.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
I don't see New England actually going this route, but we're going off value. And the value is too sweet with Harrison, my No. 2 overall player with a big-time grade of 98 overall. That's tied for the best in this class with Williams. Harrison has unreal body control, speed and instincts, helping him to 14 touchdowns last season.
4. Arizona CardinalsReid's pick that fills a big need: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Harrison is the best player in the class, and the Cardinals have a WR1 issue at the moment. Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch are currently the top receivers on the depth chart, so Kyler Murray could use a game-changing target in the pass game.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Here's another solid value with Odunze, who is ranked No. 3 on my board. He's super powerful and finished the 2023 season with 1,640 yards. If Harrison were still on the board for me, he'd edge Odunze, but Arizona can't go wrong with either.
5. Los Angeles ChargersReid's pick that fills a big need: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
With the worst receiver depth chart in the league, the Chargers are desperate for an electrifying talent like Nabers, who could ignite an offense that lacked explosive plays last season. He'd help replace Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
Nabers is sitting at No. 4 overall on my board, making this a sweet value play for the Chargers while also setting up quarterback Justin Herbert with a young, game-changing wide receiver.
6. New York GiantsReid's pick that fills a big need: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
The Giants don't have a true No. 1 receiver, with Darius Slayton leading the team at 770 receiving yards last season. Odunze would be a dominating presence on the perimeter and finally give New York a go-to target.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
I'm not as high on Maye as others -- he's No. 9 overall on my board -- but it's not a huge reach to take him here because of the positional value for quarterbacks. And that's especially true because he's expected to go even higher than this.
7. Tennessee TitansReid's pick that fills a big need: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Left tackle is a glaring hole in Tennessee, especially after the team released Andre Dillard. The Titans allowed 64 sacks last season, tied for fourth most in the NFL. Alt is a plug-and-play option who has the potential to be a building block on the offensive line for the next decade.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
The ideal spot where need and value meet! Alt is my No. 6 overall player, as he displays power and agility both as a pass-protector and run-blocker. He gave up just two sacks over the past two seasons.
8. Atlanta FalconsReid's pick that fills a big need: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
My top-ranked defensive player in the draft, Turner would give the Falcons a high-end starter off the edge. Atlanta was last in pass rush win rate (30.9%) and tied for 21st in sacks (42) last season, and Turner has immense upside.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
Yeah, the Falcons have to get a pass-rusher in this draft, and considering Turner is my No. 7 overall player, this works out well. He had 10 sacks last season.
9. Chicago BearsReid's pick that fills a big need: Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
Montez Sweat was a great add for Chicago at the trade deadline last season, but he needs a running mate off the edge. The Bears' 30 sacks were second worst in the NFL in 2023. Verse is a high-floor prospect who fits well with coach Matt Eberflus' scheme, and he finished last season with nine sacks.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
Offensive tackle is not a huge hole in Chicago with Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright entrenched as starters, but Fashanu is my No. 11 overall player and a great value add. I love his potential. And you can never have too many offensive linemen.
10. New York JetsReid's pick that fills a big need: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
The Jets also need an offensive playmaker, so I considered that option. But with durability questions for newly acquired Tyron Smith, let's not forget about left tackle. I think developing Fashanu as the heir apparent makes sense; he could end up playing significant time as a rookie and helping keep Aaron Rodgers upright.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Bowers is a popular mock draft pick for the Jets based on team needs and intel from sources, but he is actually a great value, too. Bowers -- who reminds me of George Kittle and can be a matchup problem for opposing defenses -- is my No. 10 prospect in the class.
11. Minnesota VikingsReid's pick that fills a big need: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
Kirk Cousins is in Atlanta now, leaving Sam Darnold as the starting quarterback in Minnesota at the moment. I don't think McCarthy is going to still be here at No. 11, but again, this isn't a mock draft. We're filling needs, and this is a big one. McCarthy would enter a situation with the infrastructure for him to succeed. He showed good accuracy and mobility last season at Michigan.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
I have McCarthy at No. 19 on my board, which might be high enough to also make him the value pick, considering the adjustment for position. But my No. 8 player is still out there. While cornerback is fourth on my list of needs for the Vikings, Arnold is the best value pick. He has great speed and picked off five passes in 2023.
12. Denver BroncosReid's pick that fills a big need: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
The Broncos lack high-upside pass-catching options, especially after trading away Jerry Jeudy. There are a lot of weaknesses here, but Bowers would check a big box for Denver. He's incredible after the catch and can line up all over the offense.
Miller's pick that gets best value: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
McCarthy is often projected as a top-five pick, but his value based on grades is closer to the middle of Round 1. So I'm comfortable matching him with the Broncos here. McCarthy finished third in the nation in QBR (88.2) and completed 72.3% of his throws last season.
13. Las Vegas RaidersReid's pick that fills a big need: JC Latham, OT, Alabama
Based on need, Oregon quarterback Bo Nix could theoretically be a consideration here. But the Raiders did sign Gardner Minshew, and there is a pretty big hole at another position. Putting Latham at right tackle opposite Kolton Miller would give the Raiders dependable bookends on the offensive line. Latham would bring a physical presence that has been lacking in Vegas.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
We agree on the position but not the player. Fuaga is No. 12 on my board, and I think he is the best right tackle in the 2024 class, even above Latham. He's an elite run-blocker and has serious power.
14. New Orleans SaintsReid's pick that fills a big need: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
There are injury questions around New Orleans offensive tackle Ryan Ramczyk (knee), and Trevor Penning has not developed as the Saints hoped he would by this point. And New Orleans was 28th in pass block win rate (51.3%) last season. Fuaga is tough, durable and dependable, and he has the potential to be a Day 1 starter at guard or tackle.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
The Saints' needs don't align with a pass-rusher in Round 1, but Verse is my No. 14 overall prospect and plays arguably the second-most-important position in football. He has the size (6-foot-4, 254 pounds), length and power to make an impact.
15. Indianapolis ColtsReid's pick that fills a big need: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
The Colts spent three draft picks at cornerback last year -- JuJu Brents, Darius Rush (waived) and Jaylon Jones -- but none of them show the upside of Arnold. After a five-interception final college season, he's an effortless mover who can play either in the slot or on the perimeter early in his career.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
Murphy, ranked No. 13 on my board, would slide into an ideal spot with the Colts where he can rock next to DeForest Buckner. I see great first-step quickness, and he can be a three-down player.
16. Seattle SeahawksReid's pick that fills a big need: Troy Fautanu, OT/G, Washington
Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas are the clear starters at tackle, but the interior is an issue, especially after Damien Lewis signed in Carolina. Despite being a college left tackle, Fautanu could play inside; he's an agile and aggressive blocker with easy movement skills.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Troy Fautanu, OT/G, Washington
Needs and value are in agreement here. Fautanu would be a great pick in Seattle. He'd also be a really good scheme fit, and I'd plug him in at guard from Day 1.
17. Jacksonville JaguarsReid's pick that fills a big need: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
Even though the Jaguars added Gabe Davis this offseason, they still lack wide receiver depth -- especially after losing Calvin Ridley to Tennessee. Adding playmakers for Trevor Lawrence makes sense, and Thomas is a downfield target with the easy speed to race past defenders.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Mitchell has been the biggest pre-draft riser of the class, moving all the way up to No. 15 on my final board. He makes plays on the ball (32 pass breakups over the past two seasons) and ran a 4.33 in the 40-yard dash at the combine. And while it might not be the top need, Jacksonville could use a top-tier corner.
18. Cincinnati BengalsReid's pick that fills a big need: Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
A wrecking ball in the middle, Murphy would bring a tone-setting presence to the Bengals' defense. He's stout as a run-defender and disruptive as a pass-rusher. Cincinnati replaced DJ Reader with Sheldon Rankins in free agency, but it could use more help there.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
My No. 17-ranked prospect would immediately factor into the Bengals' long-term plans for life after Tee Higgins -- who requested a trade -- as the team's No. 2 receiver behind Ja'Marr Chase. Thomas led the nation with 17 touchdown catches last season.
19. Los Angeles RamsReid's pick that fills a big need: Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
This is the first Day 1 selection for the Rams since 2016, and they can attack it with a need. They lack consistent pressure generators off the edge, and that's Latu's speciality. He's arguably the best pass-rusher in the class (23.5 sacks over the past two seasons), and he fits the Rams' scheme well.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Graham Barton, C/OT, Duke
The Rams solidified the offensive line via free agency in adding Jonah Jackson and re-signing Kevin Dotson, but Barton's value as my No. 21 overall player and positional versatility -- he has started at both center and left tackle -- would make him a bargain here.
20. Pittsburgh SteelersReid's pick that fills a big need: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
The Steelers found an early starter on the offensive line in Broderick Jones last year, but it wouldn't be surprising if they dip back into the Georgia well with Mims, who arguably has the most upside of any blocker in this year's loaded offensive tackle class. Pittsburgh has to keep building up this unit.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
Mitchell comes in at No. 18 on the final board for me. The Steelers have to love that value, but it does fill a hole, too. With Russell Wilson and/or Justin Fields now under center, Pittsburgh must replace Diontae Johnson at receiver.
21. Miami DolphinsReid's pick that fills a big need: Graham Barton, C/OT, Duke
After losing two starters from the interior offensive line -- Robert Hunt and Connor Williams -- this offseason, Barton would slot in well; he's capable of playing all five positions up front.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
Latu is the cleanest pass-rusher in the draft with pro-ready hands and tools. He's No. 22 on my board, and while medicals will determine his final draft stock, he's a plug-and-play rusher.
22. Philadelphia EaglesReid's pick that fills a big need: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Philly hasn't drafted a cornerback in Round 1 since 2002 (Lito Sheppard), but it's time to invest early in the position. Mitchell could serve as an understudy to Darius Slay and James Bradberry before taking over in the future. The Eagles gave up 16 passing TDs in the second half of the 2023 season, tied for the fourth most.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
Guyton is a work in progress after 15 starts in college, but he's ranked No. 23 overall because of his traits. The Eagles could also be looking for a right tackle of the future, and Guyton could develop behind Lane Johnson.
23. Minnesota Vikings (via CLE/HOU)Reid's pick that fills a big need: Jer'Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois
Interior defensive line remains a glaring issue for the Vikings' defense, and I'm really high on Newton. He would be an explosive 3-technique in the middle of Brian Flores' unit.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Texas A&M
Cooper is my top linebacker in the class at No. 27 overall. He's a three-down impact player, and he posted 14 tackles for loss and eight sacks last season. The opportunity to land the No. 1 guy at a position -- even if it's a position that has been devalued a bit in recent years -- is key here.
24. Dallas CowboysReid's pick that fills a big need: Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
After a quiet free agency, there are a bunch of holes on this roster. But offensive line has to be addressed early after Dallas lost Tyron Smith to the Jets. Morgan has guard/tackle versatility and could play alongside Tyler Smith at either spot.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
Worthy would be great value for the Cowboys, who are perpetually looking for their WR2 behind CeeDee Lamb. He's No. 25 on my board and the No. 6 receiver in the class. The Cowboys would be getting the fastest player to run the 40-yard dash at the combine since at least 2003 (4.21 seconds).
25. Green Bay PackersReid's pick that fills a big need: Cooper DeJean, CB/S, Iowa
DeJean makes too much sense for Green Bay, as he has the versatility to play multiple spots in the secondary. The Packers allowed 7.3 yards per pass attempt last season, 20th in the NFL. DeJean's physicality would be welcomed.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
Mims started only eight games in college, but I'd argue those eight games are as good as any other tackle in the class could put together from multiple years of starting. With his final ranking of No. 24 overall on my board, the Packers can get even value on the right tackle.
26. Tampa Bay BuccaneersReid's pick that fills a big need: Chop Robinson, EDGE, Missouri
Tampa Bay is searching for options to replace Shaquil Barrett, and Robinson is nearly identical as a prospect. He has the explosiveness and bend to be a disruptive force off the edge.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Cooper DeJean, CB/S, Iowa
One of my absolute favorite players in the class, DeJean is ranked No. 20 overall as an inside/outside cornerback, safety, punt returner and all-around playmaker on defense. He had seven interceptions over the past two seasons.
27. Arizona Cardinals (via HOU)Reid's pick that fills a big need: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
The Cardinals could continue collecting talent at outside corner, where they still don't have a true No. 1 on the roster. Wiggins has the length and suddenness to immediately be that. Arizona allowed a 68.6% completion percentage last season, second worst in the NFL.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
Wiggins has 4.28 speed and excellent length. Cornerback is a premium position when it comes to team building, which makes landing my No. 28 overall player here even better value.
28. Buffalo BillsReid's pick that fills a big need: Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
Buffalo was likely going to address receiver heading into the offseason, but the Stefon Diggs trade now makes it a big problem. Worthy satisfies the Bills' dire need of young pass-catchers for Josh Allen, as his speed and downfield ability pairs perfectly with this offense.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
McConkey got a "91" grade from me, coming in at No. 26 overall on the final rankings. His inside-outside quickness is fantastic, and his 4.39 speed shows up when he has the ball in his hands.
29. Detroit LionsReid's pick that fills a big need: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
GM Brad Holmes has completely revamped the roster in Detroit, but the secondary continues to be a weak spot. McKinstry would bring toughness, savviness and a veteran-like mentality to a unit that is begging for an influx of young talent. Only the Bengals (8.1) allowed more yards per pass attempt last season than the Lions (7.8).
Miller's pick that gets best value: Zach Frazier, C, West Virginia
I'm higher on Frazier than most, as he's all the way up at No. 29 on my board. And we're sticking to the board here and taking the best available. But this is also a sneaky need, as center Frank Ragnow's future with the team will be in question after the 2024 season.
30. Baltimore RavensReid's pick that fills a big need: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
After trading Morgan Moses to the Jets, right tackle remains unsolved in Baltimore. Guyton would provide the Ravens with a toolsy young talent; he thrives in space and didn't allow any sacks last season.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Darius Robinson, EDGE/DT, Missouri
The top 29 players on my board are already accounted for in prior picks, so I'm picking between players such as Robinson, Illinois' Jer'Zhan Newton and Missouri's Ennis Rakestraw Jr. here. But when you factor in that Robinson is versatile, has great power and agility, and is ranked No. 31 on my board, it's a no-brainer.
31. San Francisco 49ersReid's pick that fills a big need: Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU
There isn't a better match for Suamataia, as he projects perfectly in the Kyle Shanahan system and helps upgrade from right tackle Colton McKivitz (even though San Francisco signed McKivitz to a one-year extension). Suamataia is sudden and has great upside, but he might require development time.
Miller's pick that gets best value: JC Latham, OT, Alabama
Latham is a polarizing prospect after he flashed great power at Alabama but also notched 18 penalties over his career. He's ranked No. 34 on my final board despite often being projected as a top-15 pick. But again, we're basing this on value, and I think this is a good range for Latham.
32. Kansas City ChiefsReid's pick that fills a big need: Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
Don't let the presence of Marquise Brown and Rashee Rice fool you -- the Chiefs still want wide receiver help for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Mitchell's three-level ability as a pass-catcher fits well in Andy Reid's scheme, as he can play on the perimeter and even sparingly in the slot. He had 11 touchdowns last season, showing great skill on contested-catch situations.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri
Rakestraw battled injuries this past season that held him back during the pre-draft process, but I love his feistiness at the line of scrimmage. That's why he's No. 32 on my final board, and he could help replace L'Jarius Sneed in Kansas City.
